Wednesday, July 19, 2017

And we are off..SXM-Bequia..

A book a day..  2 or 3 books..
Bye bye SXM

Monday, July 17, 2017

SXM - Bequia.. Monday (2).. DON


Wednesday morning (sxm)
 Don is dead... and Invest 96 has a tough road ahead.
So now its light winds at the end near Bequia, no hurry..



Tuesday morning 0900 (sxm).. 
This AM tropics map shows Tropical Storm Don with Invest 96 behind.
 Don has continued to keep healthy with winds bumped up to 50mph. Officially NHC has him peaking at 60mph. Have to keep watching as smaller systems can be tricky. Seems to be struggling some this AM however so keep up on the latest 11am advisory. He is tracking west at a quick 18mph. Our new area Invest 96 looks to be pulled more north. Hard to say yet with this one as models aren't showing much. Seems watching in real time is proving the best method right now as models have been all over the place it seems. Everything updated on the site and APP. www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP



Monday 2000 (sxm)..........
Well.. Condor ready to move, the 'Don' gets named..  So I'll have a closer look tomorrow, departure delayed..

 
A tropical storm warning has been issued for Grenada, while Barbados, St Lucia and St Vincent and the Grenadines are under tropical storm watches, following the formation of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season’s fourth storm.

DON is its name


 “This motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, with a gradual increase in forward speed.  On the forecast track, the centre of Don will move through the Windward Islands late Tuesday and Tuesday night,” it said.
“Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.”

Looks now like wet windy trip, and U never know, although not expected, if it goes more north it will be wetter and probably windier...











Sunday, July 16, 2017

SXM to Bequia... monday

 

Wait one more day until Invest 95 has passed..
It's a 2 day trip/48hrs..

Invest 95 pops up overnight in the Atlantic.
NHC has odds already at 40%.
Models not too excited right now. Most have it heading due west. We will watch! www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP


 Roy (69)
 Bas, Reina en Kim

 Silverstone on board Condor with Bas and Gaby



 


Saturday, July 8, 2017

Saturday 8th.... till next weekend. What to do/where to go and when...

Wednesday morning..

All is clear now..  no problems


Tuesday morning..

Wave from Africa  showed potential, but now it has disappeared sort of, and now something comes behind it..  Nothing special..  
Even thinking of sailing through it down south to have some more wind..  😎


Monday morning...
 
Couple spots to kinda watch. Old TD #4 is still firing and trying hard to get some circulation. Not interesting for us..

A wave out in the deep Atlantic still at 20% from the NHC this AM. GFS going bonkers over it... others not much at all. Wave is there... conditions not that bad... so always a shot as it heads west. Many days to watch and see if it develops. Whatever it is should reach the Lesser Antilles Friday'ish.

Bottom line nothing too concrete on these...  just areas to keep an eye on.  www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP




Sun morning
Still getting ready for Monday evening departure, just in case..
To Bonaire would be 475nm.. under spi 6knx24= 150nm a day..  3 days..

Sunday morning prediction for Sat 15th 1400..  To close for comfort....?



.........
Sat evening

And suddenly predictions are.. its smaller/less violent and ..  no problems  here in SXM

 ..............
Sat morning 

Old TD #4 still shooting off some showers but no problems... 

The big one off Africa is next. GFS has been all over it... EURO off and on. 
First step is surviving the big jump onto water.
Timing has whatever it becomes nearing the Lesser Antilles later into next week. www.spaghettimodels.com


 0800 (on 8 July)   predictions..  for Friday 1700..
 So if it stays down we are good here in SXM..  But shit mostly goes up, where we are...    Ready to go

Wednesday 1100
Thursday 13th 1100
Friday 14 1700




Friday, July 7, 2017

Hurricane season active.. July 7th...July 11.. July 16


  
Friday 1100   Latest NHC advisory on TD #4: "The depression is forecast to become a remnant low or degenerate into a open wave tonight.



Td no 4 still holding its own fighting dry air.. here is the latest from the national hurricane center
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017
500 AM AST Fri Jul 07 2017

...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 48.8W
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four
was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 48.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, with weakening expected
to begin by late tonight. The depression is forecast to degenerate
into a remnant low or tropical wave by Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.




Saturday July 7
Sunday July 8

 The July 11st one could get closer but, maybe does not mather
 
 
Tuesday
Wednesday 
Thursday
Friday

Saturday

Sunday 16th  already gone...




Anna and Garry, prepairing with Richard to bring this boat to IJmuiden, the Netherlands..

Time to say goodbye, Sophie is getting to big,
and is kept short by the blades of the wind generator...

http://teamhan.blogspot.com/2012/10/sophie-bigger-pot.html

 Nov 2011, 15usd.. I tried 2ce to to get Palm tree growing from Coconut, but every time the green coming up was about 10cm high it perished.. 
I gave up when I could buy Sophie on Bonaire for 15us from Venezualan 'green' market at Kralendijk, near Wattaburger place..

Saturday, July 1, 2017

Weather prediction for Next Sat 8/7




6 Jul 1100

11am NHC update. Still expected to be not 'Don'. 
Dry air and shear said to be too much.
.....
Tropical depression number 4 latest update
Right now its starting to feel effects of dry air ahead of it as you can see the orange shades around the system indicates dry air and these systems need moist air in order to survive..please see update from nhc below.






5 jul 1000
 Invest 94 starting to get some convection these past several hours. Still has obstacles ahead that models keep showing down the road. NHC locked in at 70% chance it will be a TD/TS soon. 
Circulation is there.. just needs more thunderstorms and we may have a go. If it survives models showing high pressure bending it more west closer to the states... 
BUT that is if it even has anything left. 
Timing would be just east of the Bahamas this time next week. www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP


 

Afternoon jul 4
pressure seems of..  its turning even more north ..  predictions..

Morning jul 4
Invest 94 continues to slowly makes its way westward. NHC up to 80% this AM and we could be looking at future Don soon. Models have been consistent on a WNW movement. Still needs to break free from the monsoon trough. High pressure strength will be a big factor on when/if a turn before the US and any islands before. Some weakening nearing the Bahamas has been showing up with a chance to come back after (mainly EURO). No talk on conditions that far ahead from the NHC just that things in the immediate future could enable intensification. Lots to watch. Pictured here are the latest model runs of the EURO/GFS/GFS-P/CMC in 9-days. www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP



 https://www.windy.com/?2017-07-08-21,15.433,-54.624,6,a:CziIF
right bottom u can choose GFS 'model' (more north) or ECMWF (more west/+way less) 

Monday 0900..
Invest 94 out in the Atlantic. Several days away before nearing the Lesser Antilles (current runs pass more to the north of them). Lots to watch. www.spaghettimodels.com



Prediction 3 jul.. hmm some options closer to SXM then yesterday..



Prediction 2 jul...  good, every option well clear of sxm..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif
 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-animated.gif
 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94L/94L_floater.html


3 jul  Will Azores High push it down??



2 jul




The prediction (only GFS) now, Sat Jul 1/7,
is that this will pass SXM  next Saturday 8/7
 ca 200nm East,
 moving sort of NW...

If so.. should be no problem,,,,  Just a day with no wind turning anti clockwise around, gray and rain..
Sat 8 Jul 1200
SXM to Grenada (380nm or 700km) is normally 2-3 days with 15knts East wind..

update.. on Monday morning prediction for Sat 7 jul..  system more east..  looks beter..

Sun 9 Jul 0800


update..  on Monday morning prediction for Sun 8 jul..  system more north.. also looks better..