Of 10.15 (16.15 Nl time)
1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while the low moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with a
trough of low pressure. Strong upper-level winds are expected to
prevent the development of this system during the next few days
while it moves west-northwestward to the north of the Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico. By mid week, environmental conditions
could become more conducive for development when the disturbance
reaches the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Earlier this morning..
#2 is Invest 94. NHC have really backed off chances. Models kinda show it but continue showing a wave behind overtaking and looking like a bigger threat to watch. Nothing official to worry about with it yet. 40% from the NHC. #3 is TS Gabrielle. Another northward system in the upper Atlantic... but should turn off to the NE. Enjoy your day!
Yesterdays..
Satellite images on Friday morning showed that this system had a high amount of spin,
but a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity.
The meager heavy thunderstorm activity was due to
plenty of dry air, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis.
The 6Z run of the SHIPS model predicted that the atmosphere in front of 94L would have favorable conditions for development,
with low wind shear,
sea surface temperatures of 28 – 29°C (82 – 84°F),
and a mid-level relative humidity near 60%.
Dry air will continue to inhibit development over the next two days, though,
until 94L can generate enough heavy thunderstorm activity to moisten the atmosphere.
The low shear will aid this process.
Recent runs of our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis
—the GFS, European and UKMET—
have all shown support for development,
with several runs depicting the wave developing into a long-track Cape Verdes-type hurricane.
The wave is predicted to take a west to west-northwest track over the coming week, and 94L could arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands as a named storm
as early as September 14.
However, re-curvature into the open central Atlantic is also a good possibility.
In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 70%, respectively.
The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Humberto..
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