Okt 2014 Las Aves (east of Bonaire) with Erwin and very pregnant Mandy, Tim etc
November 2011
Colorado State University hurricane researchers continue to predict a below-average Atlantic hurricane season.
They cite both
-a cooler than normal tropical Atlantic and
-the potential development of a weak El Niño event as the primary reasons for the below-average prediction.
The tropical Atlantic remains much colder than normal. A colder tropical Atlantic provides less fuel for developing tropical cyclones. Vertical wind shear was much stronger than normal across the Caribbean in July. This also tends to be associated with quieter Atlantic hurricane seasons. The tropical eastern and central Pacific is currently slightly warmer than normal. There is the potential that El Niño conditions could develop over the next few months. If this occurs, it would tend to increase vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to develop.
The team bases its forecasts on over 60 years of historical data that include Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño (warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and other factors.
So far, the 2018 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1968, 1986, 1993, 1994 and 2002.
“All of these analog seasons experienced below average Atlantic hurricane activity,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.
The team predicts that 2018 hurricane activity will be about 70 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2017’s hurricane activity was about 245 percent of the average season.
This is the 35th year that the CSU hurricane research team has issued the Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecast. The late William Gray, professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science for over 40 years, launched the report in 1984.
The CSU forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season – not an exact measure.
Michael Bell, associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and co-author of the report, cautioned coastal residents to take proper precautions.
“It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season,” Bell said.
They cite both
-a cooler than normal tropical Atlantic and
-the potential development of a weak El Niño event as the primary reasons for the below-average prediction.
The tropical Atlantic remains much colder than normal. A colder tropical Atlantic provides less fuel for developing tropical cyclones. Vertical wind shear was much stronger than normal across the Caribbean in July. This also tends to be associated with quieter Atlantic hurricane seasons. The tropical eastern and central Pacific is currently slightly warmer than normal. There is the potential that El Niño conditions could develop over the next few months. If this occurs, it would tend to increase vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to develop.
Nine additional named storms
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting a total of nine additional named storms to form after Aug. 1. Of those, researchers expect three to become hurricanes and one to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. These forecast numbers do not include Tropical Cyclones Alberto, Beryl and Chris which formed prior to Aug. 1.The team bases its forecasts on over 60 years of historical data that include Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño (warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and other factors.
So far, the 2018 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1968, 1986, 1993, 1994 and 2002.
“All of these analog seasons experienced below average Atlantic hurricane activity,” said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.
The team predicts that 2018 hurricane activity will be about 70 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2017’s hurricane activity was about 245 percent of the average season.
This is the 35th year that the CSU hurricane research team has issued the Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecast. The late William Gray, professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science for over 40 years, launched the report in 1984.
The CSU forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season – not an exact measure.
Michael Bell, associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and co-author of the report, cautioned coastal residents to take proper precautions.
“It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season,” Bell said.
